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The Capital Region of Denmark - a part of Copenhagen University Hospital
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Survival Prognosis in Very Old Adults

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  • Mikael Thinggaard
  • Matt McGue
  • Bernard Jeune
  • Merete Osler
  • James W Vaupel
  • Kaare Christensen
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OBJECTIVES: To determine whether simple functional indicators are predictors of survival prognosis in very old adults.

DESIGN: In-person survey conducted over a 3-month period in 1998; assessment of survival over a 15-year follow-up period.

SETTING: Denmark.

PARTICIPANTS: All 3,600 Danes born in 1905 and living in Denmark in 1998, were invited to participate regardless of residence and health; 2,262 (63%) participated in the survey: 1,814 (80.2%) in person and 448 (19.8%) through a proxy.

MEASUREMENTS: Socioeconomic factors, medications and diseases, activities of daily living, physical performance, cognition, depression symptomatology, self-rated health, and all-cause mortality, evaluated as average remaining lifespan and chance of surviving to 100 years.

RESULTS: Men aged 92 to 93 had an overall 6.0% chance of surviving to 100 years, whereas the chance for women was 11.4%. Being able to rise without use of hands increased the chance for men to 11.2% (95% confidence interval (CI)=7.7-14.7) and for women to 22.0% (95% CI=18.9-25.1). When combining this with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from 28 to 30, the chances were 21.7% (95% CI=11.5-31.9) for men and 34.2% (95% CI=24.8-43.5) for women.

CONCLUSION: Chair stand score combined with MMSE score is a quick and easy way to estimate overall chance of survival in very old adults, which is particularly relevant when treatment with potential side effects for nonacute diseases is considered.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of the American Geriatrics Society
Volume64
Issue number1
Pages (from-to)81-8
Number of pages8
ISSN0002-8614
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2016

    Research areas

  • Activities of Daily Living, Aged, 80 and over, Cognition, Denmark, Female, Forecasting, Geriatric Assessment, Humans, Male, Prognosis, Retrospective Studies, Survival Analysis, Survival Rate, Journal Article, Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

ID: 49935394