Suitability of machine learning models for prediction of clinically defined Stage III/IV periodontitis from questionnaires and demographic data in Danish cohorts

AIM: To evaluate if, and to what extent, machine learning models can capture clinically defined Stage III/IV periodontitis from self-report questionnaires and demographic data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Self-reported measures of periodontitis, demographic data and clinically established Stage III/IV periodontitis status were extracted from two Danish population-based cohorts (The Copenhagen Aging and Midlife Biobank [CAMB] and The Danish Health Examination Survey [DANHES]) and used to develop cross-validated machine learning models for the prediction of clinically established Stage III/IV periodontitis. Models were trained using 10-fold cross-validations repeated three times on the CAMB dataset (n = 1476), and the resulting models were validated in the DANHES dataset (n = 3585).

RESULTS: The prevalence of Stage III/IV periodontitis was 23.2% (n = 342) in the CAMB dataset and 9.3% (n = 335) in the DANHES dataset. For the prediction of clinically established Stage III/IV periodontitis in the CAMB cohort, models reached area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROCs) of 0.67-0.69, sensitivities of 0.58-0.64 and specificities of 0.71-0.80. In the DANHES cohort, models derived from the CAMB cohort achieved AUROCs of 0.64-0.70, sensitivities of 0.44-0.63 and specificities of 0.75-0.84.

CONCLUSIONS: Applying cross-validated machine learning algorithms to demographic data and self-reported measures of periodontitis resulted in models with modest capabilities for the prediction of Stage III/IV periodontitis in two Danish cohorts.