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SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

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@article{71872deadd3b434aa8112e84e206019d,
title = "SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study",
abstract = "BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.",
author = "{COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative} and Meyhoff, {Christian Sylvest} and Bonde Peter and Ebbeh{\o}j, {Anders Lyng} and Anne-Sofie Fenger and Haugstvedt, {Aleksander Fjeld} and Hansen, {Christine Hangaard} and J{\"o}nsson, {Maria Lovisa} and J{\o}rgensen, {Lars Nannestad} and Peter-Martin Krarup and Anne-Louise Lihn and Otte, {Helena Roed} and Henrik Palm and Schlesinger, {Nis Hallundb{\ae}k} and Smith, {Henry George} and Amar, {Anas Ould Si} and Ida Tryggedsson",
note = "{\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of BJS Society Ltd. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.",
year = "2021",
month = mar,
day = "24",
doi = "10.1093/bjs/znab101",
language = "English",
journal = "Archivum Chirurgicum Neerlandicum",
issn = "0007-1323",
publisher = "John/Wiley & Sons Ltd",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives

T2 - data from an international prospective cohort study

AU - COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative

A2 - Meyhoff, Christian Sylvest

A2 - Peter, Bonde

A2 - Ebbehøj, Anders Lyng

A2 - Fenger, Anne-Sofie

A2 - Haugstvedt, Aleksander Fjeld

A2 - Hansen, Christine Hangaard

A2 - Jönsson, Maria Lovisa

A2 - Jørgensen, Lars Nannestad

A2 - Krarup, Peter-Martin

A2 - Lihn, Anne-Louise

A2 - Otte, Helena Roed

A2 - Palm, Henrik

A2 - Schlesinger, Nis Hallundbæk

A2 - Smith, Henry George

A2 - Amar, Anas Ould Si

A2 - Tryggedsson, Ida

N1 - © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of BJS Society Ltd. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

PY - 2021/3/24

Y1 - 2021/3/24

N2 - BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

AB - BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

U2 - 10.1093/bjs/znab101

DO - 10.1093/bjs/znab101

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 33761533

JO - Archivum Chirurgicum Neerlandicum

JF - Archivum Chirurgicum Neerlandicum

SN - 0007-1323

ER -

ID: 64447312