SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative; Christian Sylvest Meyhoff; Bonde Peter; Anders Lyng Ebbehøj; Anne-Sofie Fenger; Aleksander Fjeld Haugstvedt; Christine Hangaard Hansen; Maria Lovisa Jönsson; Lars Nannestad Jørgensen; Peter-Martin Krarup; Anne-Louise  Lihn; Helena Roed Otte; Henrik Palm; Nis Hallundbæk Schlesinger; Henry George Smith; Anas Ould Si Amar; Ida Tryggedsson

doi:10.1093/bjs/znab101

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative , Christian Sylvest Meyhoff (Member of study group), Bonde Peter (Member of study group), Anders Lyng Ebbehøj (Member of study group), Anne-Sofie Fenger (Member of study group), Aleksander Fjeld Haugstvedt (Member of study group), Christine Hangaard Hansen (Member of study group), Maria Lovisa Jönsson (Member of study group), Lars Nannestad Jørgensen (Member of study group), Peter-Martin Krarup (Member of study group), Anne-Louise Lihn (Member of study group), Helena Roed Otte (Member of study group), Henrik Palm (Member of study group), Nis Hallundbæk Schlesinger (Member of study group), Henry George Smith (Member of study group), Anas Ould Si Amar (Member of study group), Ida Tryggedsson (Member of study group)

27 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.

METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.

RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.

CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

Original language	English
Journal	The British journal of surgery
Volume	108
Issue number	9
Pages (from-to)	1-8
Number of pages	8
ISSN	0007-1323
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101
Publication status	Published - 2021

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10.1093/bjs/znab101

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COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative , Meyhoff, C. S., Peter, B., Ebbehøj, A. L., Fenger, A.-S., Haugstvedt, A. F., Hansen, C. H., Jönsson, M. L., Jørgensen, L. N., Krarup, P.-M., Lihn, A.-L., Otte, H. R., Palm, H., Schlesinger, N. H., Smith, H. G., Amar, A. O. S., & Tryggedsson, I. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study. The British journal of surgery, 108(9), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study. / COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative ; Meyhoff, Christian Sylvest (Member of study group); Peter, Bonde (Member of study group) et al.
In: The British journal of surgery, Vol. 108, No. 9, 2021, p. 1-8.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative , Meyhoff, CS , Peter, B , Ebbehøj, AL , Fenger, A-S , Haugstvedt, AF, Hansen, CH, Jönsson, ML, Jørgensen, LN , Krarup, P-M, Lihn, A-L, Otte, HR, Palm, H , Schlesinger, NH , Smith, HG, Amar, AOS & Tryggedsson, I 2021, 'SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study', The British journal of surgery, vol. 108, no. 9, pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101

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title = "SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.",

author = "{COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative} and Meyhoff, {Christian Sylvest} and Bonde Peter and Ebbeh{\o}j, {Anders Lyng} and Anne-Sofie Fenger and Haugstvedt, {Aleksander Fjeld} and Hansen, {Christine Hangaard} and J{\"o}nsson, {Maria Lovisa} and J{\o}rgensen, {Lars Nannestad} and Peter-Martin Krarup and Anne-Louise Lihn and Otte, {Helena Roed} and Henrik Palm and Schlesinger, {Nis Hallundb{\ae}k} and Smith, {Henry George} and Amar, {Anas Ould Si} and Ida Tryggedsson",

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language = "English",

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T1 - SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives

T2 - data from an international prospective cohort study

AU - COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative

A2 - Meyhoff, Christian Sylvest

A2 - Peter, Bonde

A2 - Ebbehøj, Anders Lyng

A2 - Fenger, Anne-Sofie

A2 - Haugstvedt, Aleksander Fjeld

A2 - Hansen, Christine Hangaard

A2 - Jönsson, Maria Lovisa

A2 - Jørgensen, Lars Nannestad

A2 - Krarup, Peter-Martin

A2 - Lihn, Anne-Louise

A2 - Otte, Helena Roed

A2 - Palm, Henrik

A2 - Schlesinger, Nis Hallundbæk

A2 - Smith, Henry George

A2 - Amar, Anas Ould Si

A2 - Tryggedsson, Ida

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

AB - BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

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DO - 10.1093/bjs/znab101

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 33761533

SN - 0007-1323

VL - 108

SP - 1

EP - 8

JO - The British journal of surgery

JF - The British journal of surgery

IS - 9

ER -

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

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