TY - JOUR
T1 - Replicating patterns of prospect theory for decision under risk
AU - Ruggeri, Kai
AU - Alí, Sonia
AU - Berge, Mari Louise
AU - Bertoldo, Giulia
AU - Bjørndal, Ludvig D.
AU - Cortijos-Bernabeu, Anna
AU - Davison, Clair
AU - Demić, Emir
AU - Esteban-Serna, Celia
AU - Friedemann, Maja
AU - Gibson, Shannon P.
AU - Jarke, Hannes
AU - Karakasheva, Ralitsa
AU - Khorrami, Peggah R.
AU - Kveder, Jakob
AU - Andersen, Thomas Lind
AU - Lofthus, Ingvild S.
AU - McGill, Lucy
AU - Nieto, Ana E.
AU - Pérez, Jacobo
AU - Quail, Sahana K.
AU - Rutherford, Charlotte
AU - Tavera, Felice L.
AU - Tomat, Nastja
AU - Reyn, Chiara Van
AU - Većkalov, Bojana
AU - Wang, Keying
AU - Yosifova, Aleksandra
AU - Papa, Francesca
AU - Rubaltelli, Enrico
AU - Linden, Sander van der
AU - Folke, Tomas
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
PY - 2020/6/1
Y1 - 2020/6/1
N2 - Prospect theory is among the most influential frameworks in behavioural science, specifically in research on decision-making under risk. Kahneman and Tversky’s 1979 study tested financial choices under risk, concluding that such judgements deviate significantly from the assumptions of expected utility theory, which had remarkable impacts on science, policy and industry. Though substantial evidence supports prospect theory, many presumed canonical theories have drawn scrutiny for recent replication failures. In response, we directly test the original methods in a multinational study (n = 4,098 participants, 19 countries, 13 languages), adjusting only for current and local currencies while requiring all participants to respond to all items. The results replicated for 94% of items, with some attenuation. Twelve of 13 theoretical contrasts replicated, with 100% replication in some countries. Heterogeneity between countries and intra-individual variation highlight meaningful avenues for future theorizing and applications. We conclude that the empirical foundations for prospect theory replicate beyond any reasonable thresholds.
AB - Prospect theory is among the most influential frameworks in behavioural science, specifically in research on decision-making under risk. Kahneman and Tversky’s 1979 study tested financial choices under risk, concluding that such judgements deviate significantly from the assumptions of expected utility theory, which had remarkable impacts on science, policy and industry. Though substantial evidence supports prospect theory, many presumed canonical theories have drawn scrutiny for recent replication failures. In response, we directly test the original methods in a multinational study (n = 4,098 participants, 19 countries, 13 languages), adjusting only for current and local currencies while requiring all participants to respond to all items. The results replicated for 94% of items, with some attenuation. Twelve of 13 theoretical contrasts replicated, with 100% replication in some countries. Heterogeneity between countries and intra-individual variation highlight meaningful avenues for future theorizing and applications. We conclude that the empirical foundations for prospect theory replicate beyond any reasonable thresholds.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85085206369
U2 - 10.1038/s41562-020-0886-x
DO - 10.1038/s41562-020-0886-x
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 32424259
AN - SCOPUS:85085206369
SN - 2397-3374
VL - 4
SP - 622
EP - 633
JO - Nature Human Behaviour
JF - Nature Human Behaviour
IS - 6
ER -