Prognostic Models for Global Functional Outcome and Post-Concussion Symptoms Following Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: A Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) Study

Ana Mikolić*, Ewout W. Steyerberg, Suzanne Polinder, Lindsay Wilson, Marina Zeldovich, Nicole von Steinbueche, Virginia F.J. Newcombe, David K. Menon, Joukje van der Naalt, Hester F. Lingsma, Andrew I.R. Maas, David van Klaveren, Cecilia Åkerlund, Krisztina Amrein, Nada Andelic, Lasse Andreassen, Audny Anke, Anna Antoni, Gérard Audibert, Philippe AzouviMaria Luisa Azzolini, Ronald Bartels, Pál Barzó, Romuald Beauvais, Ronny Beer, Bo Michael Bellander, Antonio Belli, Habib Benali, Maurizio Berardino, Luigi Beretta, Morten Blaabjerg, Peter Bragge, Alexandra Brazinova, Vibeke Brinck, Joanne Brooker, Camilla Brorsson, Andras Buki, Monika Bullinger, Manuel Cabeleira, Alessio Caccioppola, Emiliana Calappi, Maria Rosa Calvi, Peter Cameron, Guillermo Carbayo Lozano, Marco Carbonara, Simona Cavallo, Giorgio Chevallard, The CENTER-TBI Participants and Investigators, Martin Fabricius (Member of study group), Daniel Kondziella (Member of study group), Matej Oresic

*Corresponding author for this work
9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

After mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), a substantial proportion of individuals do not fully recover on the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) or experience persistent post-concussion symptoms (PPCS). We aimed to develop prognostic models for the GOSE and PPCS at 6 months after mTBI and to assess the prognostic value of different categories of predictors (clinical variables; questionnaires; computed tomography [CT]; blood biomarkers). From the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study, we included participants aged 16 or older with Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) 13-15. We used ordinal logistic regression to model the relationship between predictors and the GOSE, and linear regression to model the relationship between predictors and the Rivermead Post-concussion Symptoms Questionnaire (RPQ) total score. First, we studied a pre-specified Core model. Next, we extended the Core model with other clinical and sociodemographic variables available at presentation (Clinical model). The Clinical model was then extended with variables assessed before discharge from hospital: early post-concussion symptoms, CT variables, biomarkers, or all three categories (extended models). In a subset of patients mostly discharged home from the emergency department, the Clinical model was extended with 2-3–week post-concussion and mental health symptoms. Predictors were selected based on Akaike’s Information Criterion. Performance of ordinal models was expressed as a concordance index (C) and performance of linear models as proportion of variance explained (R2). Bootstrap validation was used to correct for optimism. We included 2376 mTBI patients with 6-month GOSE and 1605 patients with 6-month RPQ. The Core and Clinical models for GOSE showed moderate discrimination (C = 0.68 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.70 and C = 0.70[0.69 to 0.71], respectively) and injury severity was the strongest predictor. The extended models had better discriminative ability (C = 0.71[0.69 to 0.72] with early symptoms; 0.71[0.70 to 0.72] with CT variables or with blood biomarkers; 0.72[0.71 to 0.73] with all three categories). The performance of models for RPQ was modest (R2 = 4% Core; R2 = 9% Clinical), and extensions with early symptoms increased the R2 to 12%. The 2-3-week models had better performance for both outcomes in the subset of participants with these symptoms measured (C = 0.74 [0.71 to 0.78] vs. C = 0.63[0.61 to 0.67] for GOSE; R2 = 37% vs. 6% for RPQ). In conclusion, the models based on variables available before discharge have moderate performance for the prediction of GOSE and poor performance for the prediction of PPCS. Symptoms assessed at 2-3 weeks are required for better predictive ability of both outcomes. The performance of the proposed models should be examined in independent cohorts.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Neurotrauma
Volume40
Issue number15-16
Pages (from-to)1651-1670
Number of pages20
ISSN0897-7151
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2023

Keywords

  • biomarkers
  • Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended
  • mild traumatic brain injury
  • post-concussion symptoms
  • predictors
  • prognostic model

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