TY - JOUR
T1 - Prognostic Models for Global Functional Outcome and Post-Concussion Symptoms Following Mild Traumatic Brain Injury
T2 - A Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) Study
AU - Mikolić, Ana
AU - Steyerberg, Ewout W.
AU - Polinder, Suzanne
AU - Wilson, Lindsay
AU - Zeldovich, Marina
AU - von Steinbueche, Nicole
AU - Newcombe, Virginia F.J.
AU - Menon, David K.
AU - van der Naalt, Joukje
AU - Lingsma, Hester F.
AU - Maas, Andrew I.R.
AU - van Klaveren, David
AU - Åkerlund, Cecilia
AU - Amrein, Krisztina
AU - Andelic, Nada
AU - Andreassen, Lasse
AU - Anke, Audny
AU - Antoni, Anna
AU - Audibert, Gérard
AU - Azouvi, Philippe
AU - Azzolini, Maria Luisa
AU - Bartels, Ronald
AU - Barzó, Pál
AU - Beauvais, Romuald
AU - Beer, Ronny
AU - Bellander, Bo Michael
AU - Belli, Antonio
AU - Benali, Habib
AU - Berardino, Maurizio
AU - Beretta, Luigi
AU - Blaabjerg, Morten
AU - Bragge, Peter
AU - Brazinova, Alexandra
AU - Brinck, Vibeke
AU - Brooker, Joanne
AU - Brorsson, Camilla
AU - Buki, Andras
AU - Bullinger, Monika
AU - Cabeleira, Manuel
AU - Caccioppola, Alessio
AU - Calappi, Emiliana
AU - Calvi, Maria Rosa
AU - Cameron, Peter
AU - Carbayo Lozano, Guillermo
AU - Carbonara, Marco
AU - Cavallo, Simona
AU - Chevallard, Giorgio
AU - The CENTER-TBI Participants and Investigators
AU - Oresic, Matej
A2 - Fabricius, Martin
A2 - Kondziella, Daniel
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Ana Mikolić et al 2023;
PY - 2023/8/1
Y1 - 2023/8/1
N2 - After mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), a substantial proportion of individuals do not fully recover on the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) or experience persistent post-concussion symptoms (PPCS). We aimed to develop prognostic models for the GOSE and PPCS at 6 months after mTBI and to assess the prognostic value of different categories of predictors (clinical variables; questionnaires; computed tomography [CT]; blood biomarkers). From the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study, we included participants aged 16 or older with Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) 13-15. We used ordinal logistic regression to model the relationship between predictors and the GOSE, and linear regression to model the relationship between predictors and the Rivermead Post-concussion Symptoms Questionnaire (RPQ) total score. First, we studied a pre-specified Core model. Next, we extended the Core model with other clinical and sociodemographic variables available at presentation (Clinical model). The Clinical model was then extended with variables assessed before discharge from hospital: early post-concussion symptoms, CT variables, biomarkers, or all three categories (extended models). In a subset of patients mostly discharged home from the emergency department, the Clinical model was extended with 2-3–week post-concussion and mental health symptoms. Predictors were selected based on Akaike’s Information Criterion. Performance of ordinal models was expressed as a concordance index (C) and performance of linear models as proportion of variance explained (R2). Bootstrap validation was used to correct for optimism. We included 2376 mTBI patients with 6-month GOSE and 1605 patients with 6-month RPQ. The Core and Clinical models for GOSE showed moderate discrimination (C = 0.68 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.70 and C = 0.70[0.69 to 0.71], respectively) and injury severity was the strongest predictor. The extended models had better discriminative ability (C = 0.71[0.69 to 0.72] with early symptoms; 0.71[0.70 to 0.72] with CT variables or with blood biomarkers; 0.72[0.71 to 0.73] with all three categories). The performance of models for RPQ was modest (R2 = 4% Core; R2 = 9% Clinical), and extensions with early symptoms increased the R2 to 12%. The 2-3-week models had better performance for both outcomes in the subset of participants with these symptoms measured (C = 0.74 [0.71 to 0.78] vs. C = 0.63[0.61 to 0.67] for GOSE; R2 = 37% vs. 6% for RPQ). In conclusion, the models based on variables available before discharge have moderate performance for the prediction of GOSE and poor performance for the prediction of PPCS. Symptoms assessed at 2-3 weeks are required for better predictive ability of both outcomes. The performance of the proposed models should be examined in independent cohorts.
AB - After mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), a substantial proportion of individuals do not fully recover on the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) or experience persistent post-concussion symptoms (PPCS). We aimed to develop prognostic models for the GOSE and PPCS at 6 months after mTBI and to assess the prognostic value of different categories of predictors (clinical variables; questionnaires; computed tomography [CT]; blood biomarkers). From the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study, we included participants aged 16 or older with Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) 13-15. We used ordinal logistic regression to model the relationship between predictors and the GOSE, and linear regression to model the relationship between predictors and the Rivermead Post-concussion Symptoms Questionnaire (RPQ) total score. First, we studied a pre-specified Core model. Next, we extended the Core model with other clinical and sociodemographic variables available at presentation (Clinical model). The Clinical model was then extended with variables assessed before discharge from hospital: early post-concussion symptoms, CT variables, biomarkers, or all three categories (extended models). In a subset of patients mostly discharged home from the emergency department, the Clinical model was extended with 2-3–week post-concussion and mental health symptoms. Predictors were selected based on Akaike’s Information Criterion. Performance of ordinal models was expressed as a concordance index (C) and performance of linear models as proportion of variance explained (R2). Bootstrap validation was used to correct for optimism. We included 2376 mTBI patients with 6-month GOSE and 1605 patients with 6-month RPQ. The Core and Clinical models for GOSE showed moderate discrimination (C = 0.68 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.70 and C = 0.70[0.69 to 0.71], respectively) and injury severity was the strongest predictor. The extended models had better discriminative ability (C = 0.71[0.69 to 0.72] with early symptoms; 0.71[0.70 to 0.72] with CT variables or with blood biomarkers; 0.72[0.71 to 0.73] with all three categories). The performance of models for RPQ was modest (R2 = 4% Core; R2 = 9% Clinical), and extensions with early symptoms increased the R2 to 12%. The 2-3-week models had better performance for both outcomes in the subset of participants with these symptoms measured (C = 0.74 [0.71 to 0.78] vs. C = 0.63[0.61 to 0.67] for GOSE; R2 = 37% vs. 6% for RPQ). In conclusion, the models based on variables available before discharge have moderate performance for the prediction of GOSE and poor performance for the prediction of PPCS. Symptoms assessed at 2-3 weeks are required for better predictive ability of both outcomes. The performance of the proposed models should be examined in independent cohorts.
KW - biomarkers
KW - Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended
KW - mild traumatic brain injury
KW - post-concussion symptoms
KW - predictors
KW - prognostic model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85168315877&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1089/neu.2022.0320
DO - 10.1089/neu.2022.0320
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 37078144
AN - SCOPUS:85168315877
SN - 0897-7151
VL - 40
SP - 1651
EP - 1670
JO - Journal of Neurotrauma
JF - Journal of Neurotrauma
IS - 15-16
ER -