Predictors of heart failure readmission and all-cause mortality in patients with acute heart failure

BACKGROUND: Predischarge risk stratification of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) could facilitate tailored treatment and follow-up, however, simple scores to predict short-term risk for HF readmission or death are lacking.

METHODS: We sought to develop a congestion-focused risk score using data from a prospective, two-center observational study in adults hospitalized for AHF. Laboratory data were collected on admission. Patients underwent physical examination, 4-zone, and in a subset 8-zone, lung ultrasound (LUS), and echocardiography at baseline. A second LUS was performed before discharge in a subset of patients. The primary endpoint was the composite of HF hospitalization or all-cause death.

RESULTS: Among 350 patients (median age 75 years, 43% women), 88 participants (25%) were hospitalized or died within 90 days after discharge. A stepwise Cox regression model selected four significant independent predictors of the composite outcome, and each was assigned points proportional to its regression coefficient: NT-proBNP ≥2000 pg/mL (admission) (3 points), systolic blood pressure < 120 mmHg (baseline) (2 points), left atrial volume index ≥60 mL/m2 (baseline) (1 point) and ≥ 9 B-lines on predischarge 4-zone LUS (3 points). This risk score provided adequate risk discrimination for the composite outcome (HR 1.48 per 1 point increase, 95% confidence interval: 1.32-1.67, p < 0.001, C-statistic: 0.70). In a subset of patients with 8-zone LUS data (n = 176), results were similar (C-statistic: 0.72).

CONCLUSIONS: A four-variable risk score integrating clinical, laboratory and ultrasound data may provide a simple approach for risk discrimination for 90-day adverse outcomes in patients with AHF if validated in future investigations.