Prediction of first cardiovascular disease event in 2.9 million individuals using Danish administrative healthcare data: a nationwide, registry-based derivation and validation study

Aims: The aim of this study was to derive and validate a risk prediction model with nationwide coverage to predict the individual and population-level risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Methods and results: All 2.98 million Danish residents aged 30-85 years free of CVD were included on 1 January 2014 and followed through 31 December 2018 using nationwide administrative healthcare registries. Model predictors and outcome were pre-specified. Predictors were age, sex, education, use of antithrombotic, blood pressure-lowering, glucose-lowering, or lipid-lowering drugs, and a smoking proxy of smoking-cessation drug use or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Outcome was 5-year risk of first CVD event, a combination of ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, stroke, or cardiovascular death. Predictions were computed using cause-specific Cox regression models. The final model fitted in the full data was internally-externally validated in each Danish Region. The model was well-calibrated in all regions. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier scores ranged from 76.3% to 79.6% and 3.3 to 4.4. The model was superior to an age-sex benchmark model with differences in AUC and Brier scores ranging from 1.2% to 1.5% and -0.02 to -0.03. Average predicted risks in each Danish municipality ranged from 2.8% to 5.9%. Predicted risks for a 66-year old ranged from 2.6% to 25.3%. Personalized predicted risks across ages 30-85 were presented in an online calculator (https://hjerteforeningen.shinyapps.io/cvd-risk-manuscript/).

Conclusion: A CVD risk prediction model based solely on nationwide administrative registry data provided accurate prediction of personal and population-level 5-year first CVD event risk in the Danish population. This may inform clinical and public health primary prevention efforts.