TY - JOUR
T1 - Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2015 and GOLD 2019 staging
T2 - a pooled analysis of individual patient data
AU - García Castillo, Elena
AU - Alonso Pérez, Tamara
AU - Ancochea, Julio
AU - Pastor Sanz, Maria Teresa
AU - Almagro, Pere
AU - Martínez-Camblor, Pablo
AU - Miravitlles, Marc
AU - Rodríguez-Carballeira, Mónica
AU - Navarro, Annie
AU - Lamprecht, Bernd
AU - Ramírez-García Luna, Ana S
AU - Kaiser, Bernhard
AU - Alfageme, Inmaculada
AU - Casanova, Ciro
AU - Esteban, Cristóbal
AU - Soler-Cataluña, Juan J
AU - de-Torres, Juan P
AU - Celli, Bartolomé R
AU - Marín, Jose M
AU - Ter Riet, Gerben
AU - Sobradillo, Patricia
AU - Lange, Peter
AU - Garcia-Aymerich, Judith
AU - Anto, Josep M
AU - Turner, Alice M
AU - Han, MeiLan K
AU - Langhammer, Arnulf
AU - Vikjord, Sigrid Anna Aalberg
AU - Sternberg, Alice
AU - Leivseth, Linda
AU - Bakke, Per
AU - Johannessen, Ane
AU - Oga, Toru
AU - Cosío, Borja G
AU - Echazarreta, Andrés
AU - Roche, Nicolás
AU - Burgel, Pierre-Régis
AU - Sin, Don D
AU - Puhan, Milo A
AU - López-Campos, Jose Luis
AU - Carrasco, Laura
AU - Soriano, Joan B
N1 - Copyright ©ERS 2020.
PY - 2020/10
Y1 - 2020/10
N2 - In 2019, The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) modified the grading system for patients with COPD, creating 16 subgroups (1A-4D). As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aim to compare the mortality prediction of the 2015 and 2019 COPD GOLD staging systems. We studied 17 139 COPD patients from the 3CIA study, selecting those with complete data. Patients were classified by the 2015 and 2019 GOLD ABCD systems, and we compared the predictive ability for 5-year mortality of both classifications. In total, 17 139 patients with COPD were enrolled in 22 cohorts from 11 countries between 2003 and 2017; 8823 of them had complete data and were analysed. Mean±sd age was 63.9±9.8 years and 62.9% were male. GOLD 2019 classified the patients in milder degrees of COPD. For both classifications, group D had higher mortality. 5-year mortality did not differ between groups B and C in GOLD 2015; in GOLD 2019, mortality was greater for group B than C. Patients classified as group A and B had better sensitivity and positive predictive value with the GOLD 2019 classification than GOLD 2015. GOLD 2015 had better sensitivity for group C and D than GOLD 2019. The area under the curve values for 5-year mortality were only 0.67 (95% CI 0.66-0.68) for GOLD 2015 and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63-0.66) for GOLD 2019. The new GOLD 2019 classification does not predict mortality better than the previous GOLD 2015 system.
AB - In 2019, The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) modified the grading system for patients with COPD, creating 16 subgroups (1A-4D). As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aim to compare the mortality prediction of the 2015 and 2019 COPD GOLD staging systems. We studied 17 139 COPD patients from the 3CIA study, selecting those with complete data. Patients were classified by the 2015 and 2019 GOLD ABCD systems, and we compared the predictive ability for 5-year mortality of both classifications. In total, 17 139 patients with COPD were enrolled in 22 cohorts from 11 countries between 2003 and 2017; 8823 of them had complete data and were analysed. Mean±sd age was 63.9±9.8 years and 62.9% were male. GOLD 2019 classified the patients in milder degrees of COPD. For both classifications, group D had higher mortality. 5-year mortality did not differ between groups B and C in GOLD 2015; in GOLD 2019, mortality was greater for group B than C. Patients classified as group A and B had better sensitivity and positive predictive value with the GOLD 2019 classification than GOLD 2015. GOLD 2015 had better sensitivity for group C and D than GOLD 2019. The area under the curve values for 5-year mortality were only 0.67 (95% CI 0.66-0.68) for GOLD 2015 and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63-0.66) for GOLD 2019. The new GOLD 2019 classification does not predict mortality better than the previous GOLD 2015 system.
U2 - 10.1183/23120541.00253-2020
DO - 10.1183/23120541.00253-2020
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 33263033
SN - 2312-0541
VL - 6
JO - ERJ Open Research
JF - ERJ Open Research
IS - 4
ER -