Kommentar til den statistiske usikkerhed - livets forfaerdeligheds princip

Lars Folkestad; Michael Gejl Jensen; Mikkel Brabrand; Dan Brun Petersen; Peter Hallas; Torben Knudsen

Kommentar til den statistiske usikkerhed - livets forfaerdeligheds princip

Translated title of the contribution: [Life just is not fair - and statistics do not make it any better]

Lars Folkestad, Michael Gejl Jensen, Mikkel Brabrand, Dan Brun Petersen, Peter Hallas, Torben Knudsen

Department of Anaesthesiology, Juliane Marie Centre

Abstract

We have all tried it: it is pouring down with rain, we reach for the keys, and choose the wrong one. The mathematical probability for choosing the correct key - out of two - is 50%. During the 1990s, candy.scient. Jarle Gundersson (JG) proposed a mathematically unexplainable factor of uncertainty. He used the above example with the keys and concluded that the real, or observed, probability for choosing the correct key was 5-10%. The discrepancy between the mathematical and real probability was, according to JG, caused by The Awfulness of Being Concept. In this article, we present the results from a study and demonstrate the difference between the mathematical and the observed probability of success in two different scenarios (winning a coin toss and choosing the correct key in the first attempt).

Translated title of the contribution	[Life just is not fair - and statistics do not make it any better]
Original language	Danish
Journal	Ugeskrift for Laeger
Volume	171
Issue number	51
Pages (from-to)	3775-9
Number of pages	5
Publication status	Published - 14 Dec 2009

Cite this

@article{e6ffac24b28b4595b3b3e3b33ad956fd,

title = "Kommentar til den statistiske usikkerhed - livets forfaerdeligheds princip",

abstract = "We have all tried it: it is pouring down with rain, we reach for the keys, and choose the wrong one. The mathematical probability for choosing the correct key - out of two - is 50\%. During the 1990s, candy.scient. Jarle Gundersson (JG) proposed a mathematically unexplainable factor of uncertainty. He used the above example with the keys and concluded that the real, or observed, probability for choosing the correct key was 5-10\%. The discrepancy between the mathematical and real probability was, according to JG, caused by The Awfulness of Being Concept. In this article, we present the results from a study and demonstrate the difference between the mathematical and the observed probability of success in two different scenarios (winning a coin toss and choosing the correct key in the first attempt).",

author = "Lars Folkestad and Jensen, \{Michael Gejl\} and Mikkel Brabrand and Petersen, \{Dan Brun\} and Peter Hallas and Torben Knudsen",

year = "2009",

month = dec,

day = "14",

language = "Dansk",

volume = "171",

pages = "3775--9",

journal = "Ugeskrift for Laeger",

issn = "1399-4174",

publisher = "Almindelige Danske L{\ae}geforening",

number = "51",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Kommentar til den statistiske usikkerhed - livets forfaerdeligheds princip

AU - Folkestad, Lars

AU - Jensen, Michael Gejl

AU - Brabrand, Mikkel

AU - Petersen, Dan Brun

AU - Hallas, Peter

AU - Knudsen, Torben

PY - 2009/12/14

Y1 - 2009/12/14

N2 - We have all tried it: it is pouring down with rain, we reach for the keys, and choose the wrong one. The mathematical probability for choosing the correct key - out of two - is 50%. During the 1990s, candy.scient. Jarle Gundersson (JG) proposed a mathematically unexplainable factor of uncertainty. He used the above example with the keys and concluded that the real, or observed, probability for choosing the correct key was 5-10%. The discrepancy between the mathematical and real probability was, according to JG, caused by The Awfulness of Being Concept. In this article, we present the results from a study and demonstrate the difference between the mathematical and the observed probability of success in two different scenarios (winning a coin toss and choosing the correct key in the first attempt).

AB - We have all tried it: it is pouring down with rain, we reach for the keys, and choose the wrong one. The mathematical probability for choosing the correct key - out of two - is 50%. During the 1990s, candy.scient. Jarle Gundersson (JG) proposed a mathematically unexplainable factor of uncertainty. He used the above example with the keys and concluded that the real, or observed, probability for choosing the correct key was 5-10%. The discrepancy between the mathematical and real probability was, according to JG, caused by The Awfulness of Being Concept. In this article, we present the results from a study and demonstrate the difference between the mathematical and the observed probability of success in two different scenarios (winning a coin toss and choosing the correct key in the first attempt).

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/74049085418

M3 - Tidsskriftartikel

C2 - 20018153

SN - 1399-4174

VL - 171

SP - 3775

EP - 3779

JO - Ugeskrift for Laeger

JF - Ugeskrift for Laeger

IS - 51

ER -

Kommentar til den statistiske usikkerhed - livets forfaerdeligheds princip

Abstract

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this