Kommentar til den statistiske usikkerhed - livets forfaerdeligheds princip

Translated title of the contribution: [Life just is not fair - and statistics do not make it any better]

Lars Folkestad, Michael Gejl Jensen, Mikkel Brabrand, Dan Brun Petersen, Peter Hallas, Torben Knudsen

Abstract

We have all tried it: it is pouring down with rain, we reach for the keys, and choose the wrong one. The mathematical probability for choosing the correct key - out of two - is 50%. During the 1990s, candy.scient. Jarle Gundersson (JG) proposed a mathematically unexplainable factor of uncertainty. He used the above example with the keys and concluded that the real, or observed, probability for choosing the correct key was 5-10%. The discrepancy between the mathematical and real probability was, according to JG, caused by The Awfulness of Being Concept. In this article, we present the results from a study and demonstrate the difference between the mathematical and the observed probability of success in two different scenarios (winning a coin toss and choosing the correct key in the first attempt).
Translated title of the contribution[Life just is not fair - and statistics do not make it any better]
Original languageDanish
JournalUgeskrift for Laeger
Volume171
Issue number51
Pages (from-to)3775-9
Number of pages5
Publication statusPublished - 14 Dec 2009

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