Does Risser stage accurately predict the risk of curve progression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis treated with night-time bracing?

PURPOSE: Risser stage is widely used as a marker for skeletal maturity (SM) and thereby an indirect measure for the risk of progression of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). The Scoliosis Research Society recommends bracing for Risser stages 0-2 as Risser stage 3 or above is considered low risk. Very few studies have assessed the risk of progression during bracing in Risser stages 3-4. The objective of the current study is to determine if Risser stages 3-4 provide a meaningful cutoff in terms of progression risk in patients with AIS treated with night-time bracing.

METHODS: AIS patients treated with night-time brace from 2005 to 2018 with a Cobb angle between 25 and 40 degrees and Risser stages 0-4 were retrospectively included. Curve progression (> 5 degrees increase) was monitored until surgery or SM. Skeletal maturity was defined as either 2 years postmenarchal, no height development or closed ulnar epiphyseal plates on radiographs.

RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-five patients were included (Risser stages 0-2: n = 86 and 3-4: n = 49). Overall, radiographic curve progression occurred in 52% while progression beyond 45 degrees was seen in 35%. The progression rate in the Risser 0-2 group was 60% and 37% in the Risser 3-4 group (p = 0.012). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, adjusted for Risser stages and age, only premenarchal status showed a statistically significant association with progression (OR: 2.68, 95%CI 1.08-6.67).

CONCLUSION: Risser stage does not provide a clinically meaningful differentiation of progression risk in AIS patients treated with a night-time brace. Risk assessment should include other more reliable measures of skeletal growth potential.