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A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

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Harvard

May, M, Sterne, JAC, Shipley, M, Brunner, E, d'Agostino, R, Whincup, P, Ben-Shlomo, Y, Carr, A, Ledergerber, B, Lundgren, JD, Phillips, AN, Massaro, J & Egger, M 2007, 'A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men' International Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 36, no. 6, pp. 1309-1318.

APA

May, M., Sterne, JAC., Shipley, M., Brunner, E., d'Agostino, R., Whincup, P., ... Egger, M. (2007). A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men. International Journal of Epidemiology, 36(6), 1309-1318.

CBE

May M, Sterne JAC, Shipley M, Brunner E, d'Agostino R, Whincup P, Ben-Shlomo Y, Carr A, Ledergerber B, Lundgren JD, Phillips AN, Massaro J, Egger M. 2007. A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men. International Journal of Epidemiology. 36(6):1309-1318.

MLA

Vancouver

Author

May, M ; Sterne, JAC ; Shipley, M ; Brunner, E ; d'Agostino, R ; Whincup, P ; Ben-Shlomo, Y ; Carr, A ; Ledergerber, B ; Lundgren, Jens Dilling ; Phillips, AN ; Massaro, J ; Egger, M. / A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men. In: International Journal of Epidemiology. 2007 ; Vol. 36, No. 6. pp. 1309-1318.

Bibtex

@article{eb58a5d625174f1ea53009db707af143,
title = "A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men",
abstract = "Background Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. Methods Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13 100 men aged 40-70 and 114 443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. Results A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95{\%} CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95{\%} CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. Conclusions The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.",
keywords = "Highly active antiretroviral therapy, protease inhibitors, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, coronary heart disease, adverse effects, prognosis, coronary risk factors",
author = "M May and JAC Sterne and M Shipley and E Brunner and R d'Agostino and P Whincup and Y Ben-Shlomo and A Carr and B Ledergerber and Lundgren, {Jens Dilling} and AN Phillips and J Massaro and M Egger",
year = "2007",
language = "English",
volume = "36",
pages = "1309--1318",
journal = "International Journal of Epidemiology",
issn = "0300-5771",
publisher = "Oxford University Press",
number = "6",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

AU - May, M

AU - Sterne, JAC

AU - Shipley, M

AU - Brunner, E

AU - d'Agostino, R

AU - Whincup, P

AU - Ben-Shlomo, Y

AU - Carr, A

AU - Ledergerber, B

AU - Lundgren, Jens Dilling

AU - Phillips, AN

AU - Massaro, J

AU - Egger, M

PY - 2007

Y1 - 2007

N2 - Background Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. Methods Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13 100 men aged 40-70 and 114 443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. Results A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. Conclusions The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

AB - Background Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. Methods Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13 100 men aged 40-70 and 114 443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. Results A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. Conclusions The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

KW - Highly active antiretroviral therapy, protease inhibitors, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, coronary heart disease, adverse effects, prognosis, coronary risk factors

M3 - Journal article

VL - 36

SP - 1309

EP - 1318

JO - International Journal of Epidemiology

JF - International Journal of Epidemiology

SN - 0300-5771

IS - 6

ER -

ID: 32527696