Serotype-specific effect of influenza on adult invasive pneumococcal pneumonia

BACKGROUND:  Influenza affects host susceptibility to pneumococcus. We sought to evaluate whether this relationship varies by pneumococcal serotype using a large epidemiological database covering 3 decades.

METHODS:  Weekly rates of invasive pneumococcal pneumonia (IPP) were obtained from the Danish National Laboratory Surveillance System, and influenza-like illness (ILI) data were collected from Danish sentinel surveillance, Statens Serum Institut, 1977-2007. We fit Poisson regression models for each age and comorbidity group, with predictors for seasonality and secular changes, ILI activity, and serotype.

RESULTS:  Among individuals with low levels of comorbidities, influenza had the largest impact on IPP incidence among low-invasiveness serotypes (influenza attributable percent: 17.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 13.6-21.9) as compared with high-invasiveness serotypes (6.7%, 95% CI, 3.8%-11.7%). Among those with higher levels of comorbidities, the effect of influenza was smaller, but high-invasiveness serotypes increased more than low-invasiveness serotypes (8.9% [95% CI, 6.6-11.8] vs. 1.3% [95% CI, -1.6-5.4].

CONCLUSIONS: Influenza was associated with the greatest increases in the incidence of disease caused by serotypes with lower invasive potential and among individuals with low levels of comorbid conditions. The importance of influenza for adult IPP varies by serotype and host comorbidity.