TY - JOUR
T1 - Serotype-specific changes in invasive pneumococcal disease after pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction
T2 - a pooled analysis of multiple surveillance sites
AU - Feikin, Daniel R
AU - Kagucia, Eunice W
AU - Loo, Jennifer D
AU - Link-Gelles, Ruth
AU - Puhan, Milo A
AU - Cherian, Thomas
AU - Levine, Orin S
AU - Whitney, Cynthia G
AU - O'Brien, Katherine L
AU - Moore, Matthew R
AU - Serotype Replacement Study Group Helene Ingels
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - BACKGROUND: Vaccine-serotype (VT) invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) rates declined substantially following introduction of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) into national immunization programs. Increases in non-vaccine-serotype (NVT) IPD rates occurred in some sites, presumably representing serotype replacement. We used a standardized approach to describe serotype-specific IPD changes among multiple sites after PCV7 introduction.METHODS AND FINDINGS: Of 32 IPD surveillance datasets received, we identified 21 eligible databases with rate data ≥ 2 years before and ≥ 1 year after PCV7 introduction. Expected annual rates of IPD absent PCV7 introduction were estimated by extrapolation using either Poisson regression modeling of pre-PCV7 rates or averaging pre-PCV7 rates. To estimate whether changes in rates had occurred following PCV7 introduction, we calculated site specific rate ratios by dividing observed by expected IPD rates for each post-PCV7 year. We calculated summary rate ratios (RRs) using random effects meta-analysis. For children <5 years old, overall IPD decreased by year 1 post-PCV7 (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.46-0.65) and remained relatively stable through year 7 (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.35-0.68). Point estimates for VT IPD decreased annually through year 7 (RR 0.03, 95% CI 0.01-0.10), while NVT IPD increased (year 7 RR 2.81, 95% CI 2.12-3.71). Among adults, decreases in overall IPD also occurred but were smaller and more variable by site than among children. At year 7 after introduction, significant reductions were observed (18-49 year-olds [RR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.91], 50-64 year-olds [RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.77-0.93], and ≥ 65 year-olds [RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58-0.95]).CONCLUSIONS: Consistent and significant decreases in both overall and VT IPD in children occurred quickly and were sustained for 7 years after PCV7 introduction, supporting use of PCVs. Increases in NVT IPD occurred in most sites, with variable magnitude. These findings may not represent the experience in low-income countries or the effects after introduction of higher valency PCVs. High-quality, population-based surveillance of serotype-specific IPD rates is needed to monitor vaccine impact as more countries, including low-income countries, introduce PCVs and as higher valency PCVs are used. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
AB - BACKGROUND: Vaccine-serotype (VT) invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) rates declined substantially following introduction of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) into national immunization programs. Increases in non-vaccine-serotype (NVT) IPD rates occurred in some sites, presumably representing serotype replacement. We used a standardized approach to describe serotype-specific IPD changes among multiple sites after PCV7 introduction.METHODS AND FINDINGS: Of 32 IPD surveillance datasets received, we identified 21 eligible databases with rate data ≥ 2 years before and ≥ 1 year after PCV7 introduction. Expected annual rates of IPD absent PCV7 introduction were estimated by extrapolation using either Poisson regression modeling of pre-PCV7 rates or averaging pre-PCV7 rates. To estimate whether changes in rates had occurred following PCV7 introduction, we calculated site specific rate ratios by dividing observed by expected IPD rates for each post-PCV7 year. We calculated summary rate ratios (RRs) using random effects meta-analysis. For children <5 years old, overall IPD decreased by year 1 post-PCV7 (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.46-0.65) and remained relatively stable through year 7 (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.35-0.68). Point estimates for VT IPD decreased annually through year 7 (RR 0.03, 95% CI 0.01-0.10), while NVT IPD increased (year 7 RR 2.81, 95% CI 2.12-3.71). Among adults, decreases in overall IPD also occurred but were smaller and more variable by site than among children. At year 7 after introduction, significant reductions were observed (18-49 year-olds [RR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.91], 50-64 year-olds [RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.77-0.93], and ≥ 65 year-olds [RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58-0.95]).CONCLUSIONS: Consistent and significant decreases in both overall and VT IPD in children occurred quickly and were sustained for 7 years after PCV7 introduction, supporting use of PCVs. Increases in NVT IPD occurred in most sites, with variable magnitude. These findings may not represent the experience in low-income countries or the effects after introduction of higher valency PCVs. High-quality, population-based surveillance of serotype-specific IPD rates is needed to monitor vaccine impact as more countries, including low-income countries, introduce PCVs and as higher valency PCVs are used. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
KW - Adolescent
KW - Adult
KW - Aged
KW - Child, Preschool
KW - Databases as Topic
KW - Health Planning Guidelines
KW - Humans
KW - Meningitis, Pneumococcal
KW - Meta-Analysis as Topic
KW - Pneumococcal Infections
KW - Pneumococcal Vaccines
KW - Population Surveillance
KW - Serotyping
KW - Young Adult
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001517
DO - 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001517
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 24086113
VL - 10
SP - e1001517
JO - PLOS Medicine
JF - PLOS Medicine
SN - 1549-1277
IS - 9
ER -