SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative , Christian Sylvest Meyhoff (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Bonde Peter (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Anders Lyng Ebbehøj (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Anne-Sofie Fenger (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Aleksander Fjeld Haugstvedt (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Christine Hangaard Hansen (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Maria Lovisa Jönsson (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Lars Nannestad Jørgensen (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Peter-Martin Krarup (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Anne-Louise Lihn (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Helena Roed Otte (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Henrik Palm (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Nis Hallundbæk Schlesinger (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Henry George Smith (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Anas Ould Si Amar (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Ida Tryggedsson (Medlem af forfattergruppering)

27 Citationer (Scopus)


BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.

METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.

RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.

CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

TidsskriftThe British journal of surgery
Udgave nummer9
Sider (fra-til)1-8
Antal sider8
StatusUdgivet - 2021


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