SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative; Christian Sylvest Meyhoff; Bonde Peter; Anders Lyng Ebbehøj; Anne-Sofie Fenger; Aleksander Fjeld Haugstvedt; Christine Hangaard Hansen; Maria Lovisa Jönsson; Lars Nannestad Jørgensen; Peter-Martin Krarup; Anne-Louise  Lihn; Helena Roed Otte; Henrik Palm; Nis Hallundbæk Schlesinger; Henry George Smith; Anas Ould Si Amar; Ida Tryggedsson

doi:10.1093/bjs/znab101

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative , Christian Sylvest Meyhoff (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Bonde Peter (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Anders Lyng Ebbehøj (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Anne-Sofie Fenger (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Aleksander Fjeld Haugstvedt (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Christine Hangaard Hansen (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Maria Lovisa Jönsson (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Lars Nannestad Jørgensen (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Peter-Martin Krarup (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Anne-Louise Lihn (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Helena Roed Otte (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Henrik Palm (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Nis Hallundbæk Schlesinger (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Henry George Smith (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Anas Ould Si Amar (Medlem af forfattergruppering), Ida Tryggedsson (Medlem af forfattergruppering)

27 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstrakt

BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.

METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.

RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.

CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	The British journal of surgery
Vol/bind	108
Udgave nummer	9
Sider (fra-til)	1-8
Antal sider	8
ISSN	0007-1323
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101
Status	Udgivet - 2021

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10.1093/bjs/znab101

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COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative , Meyhoff, C. S., Peter, B., Ebbehøj, A. L., Fenger, A-S., Haugstvedt, A. F., Hansen, C. H., Jönsson, M. L., Jørgensen, L. N., Krarup, P-M., Lihn, A-L., Otte, H. R., Palm, H., Schlesinger, N. H., Smith, H. G., Amar, A. O. S., & Tryggedsson, I. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study. The British journal of surgery, 108(9), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives : data from an international prospective cohort study. / COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative ; Meyhoff, Christian Sylvest (Medlem af forfattergruppering); Peter, Bonde (Medlem af forfattergruppering) et al.

I: The British journal of surgery, Bind 108, Nr. 9, 2021, s. 1-8.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative , Meyhoff, CS , Peter, B , Ebbehøj, AL , Fenger, A-S , Haugstvedt, AF , Hansen, CH, Jönsson, ML, Jørgensen, LN , Krarup, P-M , Lihn, A-L , Otte, HR , Palm, H , Schlesinger, NH , Smith, HG, Amar, AOS & Tryggedsson, I 2021, 'SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study', The British journal of surgery, bind 108, nr. 9, s. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab101

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title = "SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.",

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doi = "10.1093/bjs/znab101",

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T1 - SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives

T2 - data from an international prospective cohort study

AU - COVIDSurg Collaborative, GlobalSurg Collaborative

A2 - Meyhoff, Christian Sylvest

A2 - Peter, Bonde

A2 - Ebbehøj, Anders Lyng

A2 - Fenger, Anne-Sofie

A2 - Haugstvedt, Aleksander Fjeld

A2 - Hansen, Christine Hangaard

A2 - Jönsson, Maria Lovisa

A2 - Jørgensen, Lars Nannestad

A2 - Krarup, Peter-Martin

A2 - Lihn, Anne-Louise

A2 - Otte, Helena Roed

A2 - Palm, Henrik

A2 - Schlesinger, Nis Hallundbæk

A2 - Smith, Henry George

A2 - Amar, Anas Ould Si

A2 - Tryggedsson, Ida

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

AB - BACKGROUND: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.METHODS: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.RESULTS: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.CONCLUSION: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

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U2 - 10.1093/bjs/znab101

DO - 10.1093/bjs/znab101

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 33761533

VL - 108

SP - 1

EP - 8

JO - Archivum Chirurgicum Neerlandicum

JF - Archivum Chirurgicum Neerlandicum

SN - 0007-1323

IS - 9

ER -

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

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