Primary liver cancer risk and mortality in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis in England and Denmark: observational cohort studies

INTRODUCTION: Patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis (ALD cirrhosis) have an increased risk of primary liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC] or intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma [iCCA]). England recommends surveillance for HCC in these patients, while Denmark does not.

METHODS: We performed an observational cohort study using the English Clinical Practice Research Datalink and the nationwide Danish healthcare registries to identify 17,110 English (2000-2016) and 22,122 Danish (1994-2022) patients with diagnosis codes of ALD cirrhosis. We computed and compared incidence rates and cumulative incidence of primary liver cancer, annual ultrasound scan rates, and mortality following diagnosis of primary liver cancer.

RESULTS: The overall risk of primary liver cancer was similar in England and Denmark: 5-year risk was 2.24% (95% confidence interval 2.00-2.49) in England (iCCA 0.07%, HCC 2.16%) and 2.36% (2.15-2.57) in Denmark (iCCA 0.05%, HCC 2.30%). The annual rate of ultrasound scans per person was 0.65 (0.63-0.67) in England and 0.44 (0.42-0.46) in Denmark. The 1-year mortality after a diagnosis of primary liver cancer was 59.2% (54.4-64.0) in England and 60.9% (57.4-64.4) in Denmark. The 3-year risks of HCC in those on vs off surveillance in England were 2.3% (1.0-4.6) vs 1.5% (1.0-2.2).

DISCUSSION: The risk of primary liver cancer was the same in English and Danish patients with ALD cirrhosis, and HCCs constituted 97% of primary liver cancers. Mortality with primary liver cancer was equally high in both countries. Notably, in England, where guidance recommends biannual HCC surveillance with ultrasound, patients with ALD cirrhosis were undergoing fewer than 1 ultrasound scan per year.