Premorbid multivariate prediction of adult psychosis-spectrum disorder: A high-risk prospective investigation

Premorbid prediction of psychosis-spectrum disorders has implications for both understanding etiology and clinical identification. The current study used a longitudinal high-risk for psychosis design that included children of parents with schizophrenia as well as two groups of controls (children whose parents had no mental illness, and children with at least one parent with a non-psychotic psychiatric diagnosis). Premorbid neurological factors and an indication of social function, as measured when participants were 10-13years of age, were combined to predict psychosis-spectrum disorders in adulthood. Through a combination of childhood predictors, the model correctly classified 82% (27 of 33) of the participants who eventually developed a psychosis-spectrum outcome in adulthood. With replication, multivariate premorbid prediction, including genetic risk, social, and neurological variables, could potentially be a useful complementary approach to identifying individuals at risk for developing psychosis-spectrum disorders.