Prediction of Behavioral Improvement Through Resting-State Electroencephalography and Clinical Severity in a Randomized Controlled Trial Testing Bumetanide in Autism Spectrum Disorder

BACKGROUND: Mechanism-based treatments such as bumetanide are being repurposed for autism spectrum disorder. We recently reported beneficial effects on repetitive behavioral symptoms that might be related to regulating excitation-inhibition (E/I) balance in the brain. Here, we tested the neurophysiological effects of bumetanide and the relationship to clinical outcome variability and investigated the potential for machine learning-based predictions of meaningful clinical improvement.

METHODS: Using modified linear mixed models applied to intention-to-treat population, we analyzed E/I-sensitive electroencephalography (EEG) measures before and after 91 days of treatment in the double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled Bumetanide in Autism Medication and Biomarker study. Resting-state EEG of 82 subjects out of 92 participants (7-15 years) were available. Alpha frequency band absolute and relative power, central frequency, long-range temporal correlations, and functional E/I ratio treatment effects were related to the Repetitive Behavior Scale-Revised (RBS-R) and the Social Responsiveness Scale 2 as clinical outcomes.

RESULTS: We observed superior bumetanide effects on EEG, reflected in increased absolute and relative alpha power and functional E/I ratio and in decreased central frequency. Associations between EEG and clinical outcome change were restricted to subgroups with medium to high RBS-R improvement. Using machine learning, medium and high RBS-R improvement could be predicted by baseline RBS-R score and EEG measures with 80% and 92% accuracy, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Bumetanide exerts neurophysiological effects related to clinical changes in more responsive subsets, in whom prediction of improvement was feasible through EEG and clinical measures.