TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting the next pandemic
T2 - VACCELERATE ranking of the World health Organization's Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics
AU - Salmanton-García, Jon
AU - Wipfler, Pauline
AU - Leckler, Janina
AU - Nauclér, Pontus
AU - Mallon, Patrick W
AU - Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia C J L
AU - Schmitt, Heinz-Joseph
AU - Bethe, Ullrich
AU - Olesen, Ole F
AU - Stewart, Fiona A
AU - Albus, Kerstin
AU - Cornely, Oliver A
AU - VACCELERATE Consortium
A2 - Fischer, Thea Kølsen
N1 - Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
PY - 2024/1/1
Y1 - 2024/1/1
N2 - INTRODUCTION: The World Health Organization (WHO)'s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities.METHODS: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens.RESULTS: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential.CONCLUSION: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.
AB - INTRODUCTION: The World Health Organization (WHO)'s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities.METHODS: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens.RESULTS: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential.CONCLUSION: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.
KW - Disease X
KW - Ebola virus
KW - Infectious disease
KW - Influenza viruses
KW - Pandemic
KW - SARS-CoV
KW - SARS-CoV-2
KW - WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85180484561&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676
DO - 10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 38061408
SN - 1477-8939
VL - 57
SP - 102676
JO - Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
JF - Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
M1 - 102676
ER -