International multicenter tool to predict the risk of four or more tumor-positive axillary lymph nodes in breast cancer patients with sentinel node macrometastases

Recently, many centers have omitted routine axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) after metastatic sentinel node biopsy in breast cancer due to a growing body of literature. However, existing guidelines of adjuvant treatment planning are strongly based on axillary nodal stage. In this study, we aim to develop a novel international multicenter predictive tool to estimate a patient-specific risk of having four or more tumor-positive axillary lymph nodes (ALN) in patients with macrometastatic sentinel node(s) (SN). A series of 675 patients with macrometastatic SN and completion ALND from five European centers were analyzed by logistic regression analysis. A multivariate predictive model was created and validated internally by 367 additional patients and then externally by 760 additional patients from eight different centers. All statistical tests were two-sided. Prevalence of four or more tumor-positive ALN in each center's series (P = 0.010), number of metastatic SNs (P