Explaining trends in coronary heart disease mortality in different socioeconomic groups in Denmark 1991-2007 using the IMPACTSEC model

AIM: To quantify the contribution of changes in different risk factors population levels and treatment uptake on the decline in CHD mortality in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 in different socioeconomic groups.

DESIGN: We used IMPACTSEC, a previously validated policy model using data from different population registries.

PARTICIPANTS: All adults aged 25-84 years living in Denmark in 1991 and 2007.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Deaths prevented or postponed (DPP).

RESULTS: There were approximately 11,000 fewer CHD deaths in Denmark in 2007 than would be expected if the 1991 mortality rates had persisted. Higher mortality rates were observed in the lowest socioeconomic quintile. The highest absolute reduction in CHD mortality was seen in this group but the highest relative reduction was in the most affluent socioeconomic quintile. Overall, the IMPACTSEC model explained nearly two thirds of the decline in. Improved treatments accounted for approximately 25% with the least relative mortality reduction in the most deprived quintile. Risk factor improvements accounted for approximately 40% of the mortality decrease with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. The 36% gap in explaining all DPPs may reflect inaccurate data or risk factors not quantified in the current model.

CONCLUSIONS: According to the IMPACTSEC model, the largest contribution to the CHD mortality decline in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 was from improvements in risk factors, with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. However, we found a clear socioeconomic trend for the treatment contribution favouring the most affluent groups.