Differences in polygenic score distributions in European ancestry populations: implications for breast cancer risk prediction

Kristia Yiangou; Nasim Mavaddat; Joe Dennis; Maria Zanti; Qin Wang; Manjeet K Bolla; Mustapha Abubakar; Thomas U Ahearn; Irene L Andrulis; Hoda Anton-Culver; Natalia N Antonenkova; Volker Arndt; Kristan J Aronson; Annelie Augustinsson; Adinda Baten; Sabine Behrens; Marina Bermisheva; Amy Berrington de Gonzalez; Katarzyna Białkowska; Nicholas Boddicker; Clara Bodelon; Natalia V Bogdanova; Stig E Bojesen; Kristen D Brantley; Hiltrud Brauch; Hermann Brenner; Nicola J Camp; Federico Canzian; Jose E Castelao; Melissa H Cessna; Jenny Chang-Claude; Georgia Chenevix-Trench; Wendy K Chung; Sarah V Colonna; Fergus J Couch; Angela Cox; Simon S Cross; Kamila Czene; Mary B Daly; Peter Devilee; Thilo Dörk; Alison M Dunning; Diana M Eccles; A Heather Eliassen; Christoph Engel; Mikael Eriksson; D Gareth Evans; Peter A Fasching; Olivia Fletcher; Henrik Flyger; NBCS Collaborators

doi:10.1101/2024.02.12.24302043

Differences in polygenic score distributions in European ancestry populations: implications for breast cancer risk prediction

Kristia Yiangou, Nasim Mavaddat, Joe Dennis, Maria Zanti, Qin Wang, Manjeet K Bolla, Mustapha Abubakar, Thomas U Ahearn, Irene L Andrulis, Hoda Anton-Culver, Natalia N Antonenkova, Volker Arndt, Kristan J Aronson, Annelie Augustinsson, Adinda Baten, Sabine Behrens, Marina Bermisheva, Amy Berrington de Gonzalez, Katarzyna Białkowska, Nicholas BoddickerClara Bodelon, Natalia V Bogdanova, Stig E Bojesen, Kristen D Brantley, Hiltrud Brauch, Hermann Brenner, Nicola J Camp, Federico Canzian, Jose E Castelao, Melissa H Cessna, Jenny Chang-Claude, Georgia Chenevix-Trench, Wendy K Chung, Sarah V Colonna, Fergus J Couch, Angela Cox, Simon S Cross, Kamila Czene, Mary B Daly, Peter Devilee, Thilo Dörk, Alison M Dunning, Diana M Eccles, A Heather Eliassen, Christoph Engel, Mikael Eriksson, D Gareth Evans, Peter A Fasching, Olivia Fletcher, Henrik Flyger, NBCS Collaborators

Abstract

The 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS313) provides a promising tool for breast cancer risk prediction. However, evaluation of the PRS313 across different European populations which could influence risk estimation has not been performed. Here, we explored the distribution of PRS313 across European populations using genotype data from 94,072 females without breast cancer, of European-ancestry from 21 countries participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and 225,105 female participants from the UK Biobank. The mean PRS313 differed markedly across European countries, being highest in south-eastern Europe and lowest in north-western Europe. Using the overall European PRS313 distribution to categorise individuals leads to overestimation and underestimation of risk in some individuals from south-eastern and north-western countries, respectively. Adjustment for principal components explained most of the observed heterogeneity in mean PRS. Country-specific PRS distributions may be used to calibrate risk categories in individuals from different countries.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.02.12.24302043
Status	Udgivet - 13 feb. 2024

Navn	medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

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10.1101/2024.02.12.24302043

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Yiangou, K., Mavaddat, N., Dennis, J., Zanti, M., Wang, Q., Bolla, M. K., Abubakar, M., Ahearn, T. U., Andrulis, I. L., Anton-Culver, H., Antonenkova, N. N., Arndt, V., Aronson, K. J., Augustinsson, A., Baten, A., Behrens, S., Bermisheva, M., de Gonzalez, A. B., Białkowska, K., ... NBCS Collaborators (2024). Differences in polygenic score distributions in European ancestry populations: implications for breast cancer risk prediction. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.02.12.24302043

Yiangou, K, Mavaddat, N, Dennis, J, Zanti, M, Wang, Q, Bolla, MK, Abubakar, M, Ahearn, TU, Andrulis, IL, Anton-Culver, H, Antonenkova, NN, Arndt, V, Aronson, KJ, Augustinsson, A, Baten, A, Behrens, S, Bermisheva, M, de Gonzalez, AB, Białkowska, K, Boddicker, N, Bodelon, C, Bogdanova, NV, Bojesen, SE, Brantley, KD, Brauch, H, Brenner, H, Camp, NJ, Canzian, F, Castelao, JE, Cessna, MH, Chang-Claude, J, Chenevix-Trench, G, Chung, WK, Colonna, SV, Couch, FJ, Cox, A, Cross, SS, Czene, K, Daly, MB, Devilee, P, Dörk, T, Dunning, AM, Eccles, DM, Eliassen, AH, Engel, C, Eriksson, M, Evans, DG, Fasching, PA, Fletcher, O, Flyger, H & NBCS Collaborators 2024 'Differences in polygenic score distributions in European ancestry populations: implications for breast cancer risk prediction' medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.02.12.24302043

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abstract = "The 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS313) provides a promising tool for breast cancer risk prediction. However, evaluation of the PRS313 across different European populations which could influence risk estimation has not been performed. Here, we explored the distribution of PRS313 across European populations using genotype data from 94,072 females without breast cancer, of European-ancestry from 21 countries participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and 225,105 female participants from the UK Biobank. The mean PRS313 differed markedly across European countries, being highest in south-eastern Europe and lowest in north-western Europe. Using the overall European PRS313 distribution to categorise individuals leads to overestimation and underestimation of risk in some individuals from south-eastern and north-western countries, respectively. Adjustment for principal components explained most of the observed heterogeneity in mean PRS. Country-specific PRS distributions may be used to calibrate risk categories in individuals from different countries.",

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AU - Mavaddat, Nasim

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AU - Wang, Qin

AU - Bolla, Manjeet K

AU - Abubakar, Mustapha

AU - Ahearn, Thomas U

AU - Andrulis, Irene L

AU - Anton-Culver, Hoda

AU - Antonenkova, Natalia N

AU - Arndt, Volker

AU - Aronson, Kristan J

AU - Augustinsson, Annelie

AU - Baten, Adinda

AU - Behrens, Sabine

AU - Bermisheva, Marina

AU - de Gonzalez, Amy Berrington

AU - Białkowska, Katarzyna

AU - Boddicker, Nicholas

AU - Bodelon, Clara

AU - Bogdanova, Natalia V

AU - Bojesen, Stig E

AU - Brantley, Kristen D

AU - Brauch, Hiltrud

AU - Brenner, Hermann

AU - Camp, Nicola J

AU - Canzian, Federico

AU - Castelao, Jose E

AU - Cessna, Melissa H

AU - Chang-Claude, Jenny

AU - Chenevix-Trench, Georgia

AU - Chung, Wendy K

AU - Colonna, Sarah V

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AU - Cox, Angela

AU - Cross, Simon S

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AU - Fletcher, Olivia

AU - Flyger, Henrik

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N2 - The 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS313) provides a promising tool for breast cancer risk prediction. However, evaluation of the PRS313 across different European populations which could influence risk estimation has not been performed. Here, we explored the distribution of PRS313 across European populations using genotype data from 94,072 females without breast cancer, of European-ancestry from 21 countries participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and 225,105 female participants from the UK Biobank. The mean PRS313 differed markedly across European countries, being highest in south-eastern Europe and lowest in north-western Europe. Using the overall European PRS313 distribution to categorise individuals leads to overestimation and underestimation of risk in some individuals from south-eastern and north-western countries, respectively. Adjustment for principal components explained most of the observed heterogeneity in mean PRS. Country-specific PRS distributions may be used to calibrate risk categories in individuals from different countries.

AB - The 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS313) provides a promising tool for breast cancer risk prediction. However, evaluation of the PRS313 across different European populations which could influence risk estimation has not been performed. Here, we explored the distribution of PRS313 across European populations using genotype data from 94,072 females without breast cancer, of European-ancestry from 21 countries participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and 225,105 female participants from the UK Biobank. The mean PRS313 differed markedly across European countries, being highest in south-eastern Europe and lowest in north-western Europe. Using the overall European PRS313 distribution to categorise individuals leads to overestimation and underestimation of risk in some individuals from south-eastern and north-western countries, respectively. Adjustment for principal components explained most of the observed heterogeneity in mean PRS. Country-specific PRS distributions may be used to calibrate risk categories in individuals from different countries.

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DO - 10.1101/2024.02.12.24302043

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T3 - medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences

BT - Differences in polygenic score distributions in European ancestry populations

ER -

Differences in polygenic score distributions in European ancestry populations: implications for breast cancer risk prediction

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