Forskning
Udskriv Udskriv
Switch language
Bispebjerg Hospital - en del af Københavns Universitetshospital
Udgivet

SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

DOI

  1. Day-to-day measurement of physical activity and risk of atrial fibrillation

    Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

  2. Driving following defibrillator implantation: a nationwide register-linked survey study

    Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

  3. 2021 ESC Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice

    Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

  4. HIV infection is associated with thoracic and abdominal aortic aneurysms: a prospective matched cohort study

    Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

  5. Alcohol consumption, cardiac biomarkers, and risk of atrial fibrillation and adverse outcomes

    Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

  1. Impact of high glucose levels and glucose lowering on risk of ischaemic stroke: a Mendelian randomisation study and meta-analysis

    Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

  2. Elevated apolipoprotein A1 and HDL cholesterol associated with age-related macular degeneration: 2 population cohorts

    Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

  3. Inhibition of Cholesteryl Ester Transfer Protein Preserves High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Improves Survival in Sepsis

    Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

  4. Association of Low Plasma Transthyretin Concentration With Risk of Heart Failure in the General Population

    Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

  • SCORE2 working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk collaboration
  • Anne Tybjærg-Hansen (Medlem af forfattergruppering)
Vis graf over relationer

AIMS: The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.

METHODS AND RESULTS : We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries.

CONCLUSION : SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftEuropean Heart Journal
Vol/bind42
Udgave nummer25
Sider (fra-til)2439-2454
Antal sider16
ISSN0195-668X
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 1 jul. 2021

ID: 66432312